MLB Predictions and Betting Tips 2025

MLB Season 2025 Expert Picks

We cover all the games so you can make your MLB bets more accurate. Analytics are very important in baseball and you can find everything you need on bettingexpert. MLB is divided into two leagues, the American League and National League which are also divided into East, Central, and West.

American League

American League East	American League Central	American League West
Baltimore Orioles	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox	Cleveland Guardians	Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees	Detroit Tigers	Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays	Minnesota Twins	Texas Rangers

National League

National League East	National League Central	National League West
Atlanta Braves	Chicago Cubs	Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins	Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies
New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers	Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies	Pittsburgh Pirates	San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals	St. Louis Cardinals	San Francisco Giants

MLB Betting Stats

If you want to improve your betting returns, a good place to start is to analyse a large sample size of MLB betting stats. Doing so can help you find angles and biases that other tipsters and bettors simply do not consider. Here we will take a look at MLB stats dating back to the 2007 season beginning with a situational analysis of straight up win-loss results.

Straight Up Win-Loss MLB Stats

The table below shows win-loss percentages for teams in a range of situations. For example, we can see that home teams win almost 54% of games. This represents a home field advantage that is less than that of the NFL where home teams win around 57% of their games.

One factor that is often discussed when it comes to expert picks is rest. We can see that while there is no distinct advantage for a team coming off a number of days rest, there is an advantage when a team has had more rest than their opponents, with such teams winning over 51% of their games. It’s only a slight advantage, but it’s a factor to keep in mind when betting on MLB fixtures.

Situation	WIN PCT	LOSS PCT
Home Teams	53.9%	46.1%
Away Teams	46.1%	53.9%
Favourites	57.6%	42.4%
Underdogs	42.4%	57.6%
Home Favourites	58.5%	41.5%
Home Underdogs	44.3%	55.7%
Away Favourites	55.7%	44.3%
Away Underdogs	41.5%	58.5%
After A Win	51.2%	48.8%
After A Loss	48.8%	51.2%
After 1 Days Rest	50.4%	49.6%
After 2 or 3 Days Rest	50.1%	49.9%
After 4 or More Days Rest	50.5%	49.5%
With More Rest	51.4%	48.6%

Run Line MLB Stats

Run lines are a popular way of betting on MLB games. A run line is essentially a 1.5 run handicap given to the favourite and a 1.5 run advantage given to the underdog. While we can see distinct advantages for teams in certain situations, such as underdogs playing away from home, we do need to consider the betting odds for these games, as run line odds can vary from between 1.50 and 2.50.

Situation	RUN LINE WIN PCT	RUN LINE LOSS PCT
Home Teams	45.8%	54.2%
Away Teams	54.2%	45.8%
Favourites	41.6%	58.4%
Underdogs	58.4%	41.6%
Home Favourites	40.6%	59.4%
Home Underdogs	49.4%	50.6%
Away Favourites	56.5%	43.5%
Away Underdogs	59.4%	40.6%
After A Win	49.5%	50.5%
After A Loss	50.5%	49.5%

Over Under MLB Stats

Run totals for matches vary from 8 runs to 10 runs. Can we see any distinct biases in MLB run total betting? While nothing jumps off the page, we can see that non league games finish under the run total 51% of the time, as do non division games.

Situation	OVER WIN PCT	UNDER WIN PCT
League Games	49.3%	50.7%
Division Games	49.7%	50.3%
Playoff Games	50.1%	49.9%
Non League Games	48.6%	51.4%
Non Division Games	48.9%	51.1%
Regular Season Games	49.2%	50.8%

Top MLB Betting Tips

During its regular season, several games will be played on a daily basis all week long, providing ample opportunity for betting, and the use of bettingexpert’s free MLB tips.

If you are serious about your MLB predictions, you need to employ a sports betting strategy. The Bettingexpert Academy can help you to formulate a betting strategy tailored to your specific needs. The Bettingexpert Academy is the number one resource for sports betting available online and is an essential aid to any fan of sports betting, from the raw beginner to the experienced veteran.

Similarly, bettingexpert’s Baseball Betting Guide is extremely concise and provides instructions on how to bet on the most popular betting markets. If you are new to betting, here are a few pointers taken from our Baseball betting guide:

• Research Starting Pitchers: They’re crucial in baseball outcomes. Look beyond just ERA; examine their recent performances, injury reports, and how they’ve historically fared against their opponents.
• Analyze Bullpen Strength: Late-game pitching changes can alter the course of a game. Teams with b relievers are often better at preserving leads.
• Consider Hitting Performance: Evaluate teams’ offensive stats, such as slugging percentage and on-base plus slugging (OPS), to predict scoring capabilities.
• Pay Attention to Weather Conditions: Wind direction and speed can greatly affect the total number of home runs in a game. Hotter weather also tends to help balls travel farther.
• Look for Value Bets: Don’t always go for the favorites. Underdogs can offer significant value if you believe they have an overlooked chance of winning or covering the run line.
• Watch Out for Travel Fatigue: Teams may perform worse when they’re at the end of a long road trip or haven’t had days off in succession.
• Understand Park Factors: Some ballparks favor hitters (like Coors Field), while others favor pitchers (such as Petco Park). Adjust bets based on where the game is played.

Advanced MLB Betting Strategies Explained

Stepping up their game in the MLB betting arena requires bettors to employ more sophisticated strategies. Here are a few advanced tactics they can use to sharpen their bets:

Situational Analysis: Consider factors such as:

• Historical data on how teams perform in day games compared to night games.
• Teams playing their first game at home after a long road trip may have a home-field advantage.
• How teams fare against left-handed versus right-handed starting pitchers.

Live Betting: Adjusting bets during the game offers dynamic opportunities:

• Watch for shifts in momentum due to player substitutions or visible fatigue.
• React to live occurrences, like a sudden weather change or an unexpected injury.

Fading the Public: Sometimes, going against the grain is profitable:

• Identify games where the majority of public bets are on one side and consider betting on the other if research supports it.

Leverage ‘Reverse Line Movement’ (RLM): This occurs when:

• Betting lines move opposite to what public betting percentages would suggest, indicating sharp money coming in on one side.

Proposition Bets (Props) Analysis:

• Look beyond traditional wagers and explore prop bets like which player will hit a home run or total strikeouts by a pitcher.

Using Sabermetrics:

• Employ advanced stats like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) for deeper insights into player performance.

By combining these advanced MLB betting strategies with thorough research and analysis, bettors can uncover value that less informed bettors might overlook. These methods require diligence but can lead to more informed decisions and potentially higher payouts from their baseball wagers. Remember that while no strategy is foolproof, expanding their toolkit allows them greater flexibility and control over their sports investments.

Where To Bet On Major League Baseball

(Advertising disclosure*)

New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | Play Responsibly  | T&Cs apply

Star ratings are based on our personal opinion of the bookmakers we work with. We also take customer feedback into account in our rankings

*To keep bettingexpert 100% free for users, we receive advertising compensation from the gambling operators listed on this page. This compensation may impact how and where the gambling operators appear on the page, including the order in which they appear. However, this does not influence our evaluations. Our business model

More Betting Tips From bettingexpert

Baseball Predictions
NPB Betting Tips
KBO Betting Tips

Today’s Betting Tips

Betting Tips for Tomorrow

Upcoming Betting Tips