MLB Season 2025 Expert Picks
We cover all the games so you can make your MLB bets more accurate. Analytics are very important in baseball and you can find everything you need on bettingexpert. MLB is divided into two leagues, the American League and National League which are also divided into East, Central, and West.
American League
| American League East | American League Central | American League West |
| Baltimore Orioles | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros |
| Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Los Angeles Angels |
| New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | Oakland Athletics |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | Texas Rangers |
National League
| National League East | National League Central | National League West |
| Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Miami Marlins | Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies |
| New York Mets | Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | San Diego Padres |
| Washington Nationals | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants |
MLB Betting Stats
If you want to improve your betting returns, a good place to start is to analyse a large sample size of MLB betting stats. Doing so can help you find angles and biases that other tipsters and bettors simply do not consider. Here we will take a look at MLB stats dating back to the 2007 season beginning with a situational analysis of straight up win-loss results.
Straight Up Win-Loss MLB Stats
The table below shows win-loss percentages for teams in a range of situations. For example, we can see that home teams win almost 54% of games. This represents a home field advantage that is less than that of the NFL where home teams win around 57% of their games.
One factor that is often discussed when it comes to expert picks is rest. We can see that while there is no distinct advantage for a team coming off a number of days rest, there is an advantage when a team has had more rest than their opponents, with such teams winning over 51% of their games. It’s only a slight advantage, but it’s a factor to keep in mind when betting on MLB fixtures.
| Situation | WIN PCT | LOSS PCT |
|---|
| Home Teams | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Away Teams | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Favourites | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Underdogs | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Home Favourites | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Home Underdogs | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Away Favourites | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Away Underdogs | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| After A Win | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| After A Loss | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| After 1 Days Rest | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| After 2 or 3 Days Rest | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| After 4 or More Days Rest | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| With More Rest | 51.4% | 48.6% |
Run Line MLB Stats
Run lines are a popular way of betting on MLB games. A run line is essentially a 1.5 run handicap given to the favourite and a 1.5 run advantage given to the underdog. While we can see distinct advantages for teams in certain situations, such as underdogs playing away from home, we do need to consider the betting odds for these games, as run line odds can vary from between 1.50 and 2.50.
| Situation | RUN LINE WIN PCT | RUN LINE LOSS PCT |
|---|
| Home Teams | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Away Teams | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Favourites | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Underdogs | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Home Favourites | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Home Underdogs | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Away Favourites | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Away Underdogs | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| After A Win | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| After A Loss | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Over Under MLB Stats
Run totals for matches vary from 8 runs to 10 runs. Can we see any distinct biases in MLB run total betting? While nothing jumps off the page, we can see that non league games finish under the run total 51% of the time, as do non division games.
| Situation | OVER WIN PCT | UNDER WIN PCT |
|---|
| League Games | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Division Games | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Playoff Games | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Non League Games | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Non Division Games | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Regular Season Games | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Top MLB Betting Tips
During its regular season, several games will be played on a daily basis all week long, providing ample opportunity for betting, and the use of bettingexpert’s free MLB tips.
If you are serious about your MLB predictions, you need to employ a sports betting strategy. The Bettingexpert Academy can help you to formulate a betting strategy tailored to your specific needs. The Bettingexpert Academy is the number one resource for sports betting available online and is an essential aid to any fan of sports betting, from the raw beginner to the experienced veteran.
Similarly, bettingexpert’s Baseball Betting Guide is extremely concise and provides instructions on how to bet on the most popular betting markets. If you are new to betting, here are a few pointers taken from our Baseball betting guide:
- Research Starting Pitchers: They’re crucial in baseball outcomes. Look beyond just ERA; examine their recent performances, injury reports, and how they’ve historically fared against their opponents.
- Analyze Bullpen Strength: Late-game pitching changes can alter the course of a game. Teams with b relievers are often better at preserving leads.
- Consider Hitting Performance: Evaluate teams’ offensive stats, such as slugging percentage and on-base plus slugging (OPS), to predict scoring capabilities.
- Pay Attention to Weather Conditions: Wind direction and speed can greatly affect the total number of home runs in a game. Hotter weather also tends to help balls travel farther.
- Look for Value Bets: Don’t always go for the favorites. Underdogs can offer significant value if you believe they have an overlooked chance of winning or covering the run line.
- Watch Out for Travel Fatigue: Teams may perform worse when they’re at the end of a long road trip or haven’t had days off in succession.
- Understand Park Factors: Some ballparks favor hitters (like Coors Field), while others favor pitchers (such as Petco Park). Adjust bets based on where the game is played.
Advanced MLB Betting Strategies Explained
Stepping up their game in the MLB betting arena requires bettors to employ more sophisticated strategies. Here are a few advanced tactics they can use to sharpen their bets:
Situational Analysis: Consider factors such as:
- Historical data on how teams perform in day games compared to night games.
- Teams playing their first game at home after a long road trip may have a home-field advantage.
- How teams fare against left-handed versus right-handed starting pitchers.
Live Betting: Adjusting bets during the game offers dynamic opportunities:
- Watch for shifts in momentum due to player substitutions or visible fatigue.
- React to live occurrences, like a sudden weather change or an unexpected injury.
Fading the Public: Sometimes, going against the grain is profitable:
- Identify games where the majority of public bets are on one side and consider betting on the other if research supports it.
Leverage ‘Reverse Line Movement’ (RLM): This occurs when:
- Betting lines move opposite to what public betting percentages would suggest, indicating sharp money coming in on one side.
Proposition Bets (Props) Analysis:
- Look beyond traditional wagers and explore prop bets like which player will hit a home run or total strikeouts by a pitcher.
Using Sabermetrics:
- Employ advanced stats like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) for deeper insights into player performance.
By combining these advanced MLB betting strategies with thorough research and analysis, bettors can uncover value that less informed bettors might overlook. These methods require diligence but can lead to more informed decisions and potentially higher payouts from their baseball wagers. Remember that while no strategy is foolproof, expanding their toolkit allows them greater flexibility and control over their sports investments.
Where To Bet On Major League Baseball
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